Region shows strong growth in factory jobs
Reports say wages are up but joblessness remains high
Manufacturing jobs are returning to metro Toledo at a rate higher than in many other metropolitan areas, and area workers are again earning more, although unemployment remains higher than the national average.
The good news-bad news picture comes from two reports released Wednesday, one from the Brookings Institution and one from the federal government's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
From the first quarter of 2010 through the third quarter of this year, metro Toledo -- Lucas, Fulton, Wood, and Ottawa counties -- experienced a 6.6 percent employment increase in the manufacturing sector, the Brookings report said. That was 13th among the 100 largest metro areas in the United States. Nationwide, manufacturing-sector employment rose 2.5 percent over the period.
Based on that, Brookings declared Toledo one of the 20 strongest-performing metro areas in the nation.
"You've had a strong rebound of manufacturing and that has propelled the recovery," Howard Wial, an economist and fellow with the Brookings Institution, said. Mr. Wial, one of the report's authors, said a resurgent domestic auto industry was one factor that helped Toledo -- and other northern Ohio cities.
In the subcategory of gains in manufacturing jobs, the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman metro area experienced a 13.8 percent increase, tops on the list. Akron was fourth with an 11.3 percent gain. The Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor metro area's gain of 3.6 percent was 26th.
"In northern Ohio, you are having a rapid recovery from a very, very, very deep recession," Mr. Wial said. "So things still look bad compared to where they were when the recession started, but your short-term growth is very good."
Still, economists note there's a long way to go. Despite the manufacturing gains, the Toledo metro area has 9.4 percent fewer jobs than it had at its prerecession peak in early 2006. In the Brookings rankings, that puts the metro area 88th out of 100, and much worse than the U.S. average of 4.7 percent fewer jobs.
Those jobs are paying more than last year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis report put the total average compensation per job in the city of Toledo at $51,265, up 1.2 percent over last year. That figure includes all benefits provided.
The bureau's report put total payroll in Toledo at $10.9 billion, up 1 percent over last year. In the metro area, that is $15.4 billion, up 1.2 percent.
As part of that, manufacturing was one of the strongest performers.
Collectively, manufacturing-sector employees were paid $3.01 billion in 2010, a 4.6 percent gain over 2009. Still, that number remains lower than in the eight years before the recession, when manufacturing workers collectively were paid an average of about $3.52 billion a year. The earnings are not adjusted for inflation.
Compensation in retail services also inched forward, up 1 percent over last year.
"Toledo has done reasonably good. Payroll growth relative to the nation, relative to the state is not necessarily the best, but there has been payroll growth, overall economic growth," said George Mokrzan, chief economist for Huntington National Bank in Columbus.
Both Mr. Mokrzan and Mr. Wial said the cyclical nature of manufacturing economies leads to steep tumbles but also rapid recovery.
The unemployment rate remains high in the Toledo metro area, though Mr. Mokrzan sees a continuing drop.
He noted the rate can be artificially inflated as things get better, as some who had given up their search are encouraged by the recovery and resume their search.
"As soon as they become active in looking, until they get that job they have the effect of actually raising that unemployment rate. I think it could be a gradual decline. It could be quite a while before we really get satisfactory rates," he said. "
But I think the trend is definitely downwards."
